The Future of the Value Chain (I) - Consumer Futures

The consumer is changing and will continue changing. In a study by "Forum of the Future" (http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/consumer-futures-2020/overview) shows that we expect major changes in the consumer behavior by 2020. It implies that both producer and retailers have to adapt dramatically their value chains to fulfill their expectations.

The study shows four scenarios, based on different possible trends on the economy, demography, resources, etc.. The four scenarios as shown below:

 Let summarize each scenario:

"My Way" is a high tech world, with a prosperous and entrepreneurial economy dominated by community-based trade. Smart products promote patterns of consumption that use less energy and water and generate less CO2. Many fresh products come in smart packaging that keeps them refrigerated and changes color when they pass the use-by date. Some of the characteristics of this scenario are:

• Consumers buying patterns are unpredictable and volatile
• Their relationships with brands are short lived
• Supermarkets loyalty cards are thing of the past

"From my to you" is a world where communities, collaboration and innovative business models facilitate low-carbon lifestyles. The economy is subdued and uncertain and consumers feel business is falling to deliver on the challenges faced by society. Some of the characteristics of this scenario are: 

• Loyalty brand is low
• Popularity of processed flow has declined
• More people are asking for ingredients and components rather that the finished article
• Consumers seek to obtain their goods as locally as possible

"Sell it to me" is a personalized consumer world in a flourishing global economy which is dominated by brands. Innovative products provide personal health solutions, for example, clothes impregnated by vitamins, or shampoo lather that changes color to indicate mineral deficiencies. Some of the characteristics of this scenario are:

• Consumers are confident about trusted brands, and expect a lot with them.
• They are demanding, expecting the "very best" on every score
• Consumers expects highly personalized products, services and entertainment from the retail experience.

"I´m in your hands" is a tightly regulated world in which consumers trust brands to provide what´s best for them and for the environment. The economy is recovering from recession but growth is low and credit is tight. Consumers might be fitting their homes with entirely brand-sponsored bathrooms that provide with personalized supplies of branded toiletries on demand. Some of the characteristics of this scenario are:

• Consumers want to be looked after, they want to trust businesses and governments to provide what is best for them.
• Less interested in shopping as a leisure activity.
• They want the products they do buy to be effective and durable.

As you may perceive, such consumer scenarios are demanding and expect different and innovative things from producers and retailers. In my opinion, the near future will be more a combination of these different scenarios and they will appear depending on what part of the world, what city, or even what neighborhood are you referring to.